Even as hydropower has increased in many areas of the world, drought conditions have curbed its potential. What should people do when developing water resource management strategies to account for this reality and mitigate its unwanted effects?
Understand How Seasonal Patterns Affect Hydropower Effectiveness
People should consider how much snow may impact the results when evaluating different areas for future hydropower infrastructure. Although individuals should also realize how the reservoir’s storage capacity influences the outcome, seasonal precipitation also makes a difference.
While working on a 2024 study, researchers turned their attention to the Colorado River, which supports hydropower infrastructure and provides drinking water for residents of seven states. A significant percentage of the river’s water comes from snowpack that melts each spring. Officials overseeing water resource management calculate that effect every April. However, they have made overambitious estimates since 2000, making researchers wonder why the results significantly differed from the predictions.
They eventually connected nearly 70% of the discrepancy to warmer, drier spring seasons. Relatedly, the area’s plants become more dependent on snowmelt for hydration when rainfall decreases, leaving less water available to add to the river’s streamflow.
The group also examined 26 headwater basins at various elevations, confirming that the lower ones had more pronounced streamflow deficits. Snow usually melts earlier in those locations, broadening the window for plants to use the water.
This study’s conclusions made the researchers realize that springtime rainfall is more important to that river than rain occurring at any other time. This research is especially notable since the obvious inaccuracies in the streamflow predictions aligned with the start of the so-called millennium drought. It began in 2000 and continues to this day. The event has affected the southwestern United States by causing low river levels, gradual reservoir reductions and hydrology alterations in the area.
Perform a Comprehensive Risk Analysis
Making hydropower work effectively in drought conditions is undeniably challenging. However, since many researchers are identifying new ways to address water shortages, these situations may gradually become less prominent or give people more flexibility. For example, some countries use cloud seeding to overcome droughts by stimulating precipitation. The results support hydropower by replenishing reservoirs.
Another way to rely on advanced technology for better water resource management is to deploy predictive analytics tools to identify the most likely future risks. The standard practice before finalizing plans for new hydropower plants is to review historical hydrology data. However, research suggests that the parties involved should perform future risk analyses to better understand how the challenges may change over the next several years.
A 2022 study investigated the impact of water scarcity and floods on hydropower sites. Those events are on opposite ends of the spectrum, but both can cause dam failures. The results indicated that, by 2050, problems could arise for 61% of current or projected hydropower dams. That is because they would be in locations at a high or extreme risk of flooding, water scarcity or both.
Cloud seeding is an effective technology for reducing current droughts. However, people could use technology in another way to raise future risk awareness concerning water scarcity. The study’s team noted that government officials, investors and others involved in hydropower planning must pay more attention to projections related to rainfall patterns, river flows and extreme weather.
Although people cannot predict the future with certainty, data analysis and modeling tools can help them feel more confident about what is ahead. Those findings should shape their project management decisions. Hydropower is among several innovative solutions shaping the renewable energy landscape, and advanced resources help people use it wisely.
Recognize That Hydropower Plants Can Still Function During Droughts
Although droughts may make hydropower infrastructure less productive, those involved in water resource management must have accurate expectations and realize that droughts continue contributing to an area’s power mix during water scarcity.
That was a critical finding from an in-depth study on the impact of droughts on hydropower in the western region of the United States. Researchers examined 120 years of data, confirming that drought persistence and intensity fluctuate by year. Additionally, the evaluated region has more than 600 hydropower plants, although these vary in size, quantity and operational specifics, depending on the area.
The group also reviewed 19 years of observations from eight hydropower climate regions. One of the most important takeaways was that the overall power-generation fleet maintained at least four-fifths of its typical yearly generation, even during three distinct drought periods.
The investigators clarified that one reason for that sustainability is that the challenging scarcity rarely affects all the region’s river basins simultaneously. Additionally, when examining basin-level generation during six of the worst hydro drought years of the 21st century, researchers found that the variation of impact and the year-to-year variability were significantly different depending on location.
These conclusions should remind those involved in water resource management that it is not useful to hastily believe that hydropower will become useless during droughts. The more likely scenario is that its output will change but continue.
Plan for Droughts During Water Resource Management Efforts
Droughts are frequent occurrences, and you must account for that reality while considering how or if hydropower fits into water resource management plans. When people take thoughtful, balanced and data-driven approaches, they can see how hydropower remains viable during times of scarcity.
